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This... Well, I have no words, except you can read the full text of the artice here:
"To bring an umbrella or not to bring an umbrella? That's the perennial question on those days where the chance of rain is less than 100 percent.
But only half the population understands what a precipitation forecast means well enough to make a fully informed answer, a new study finds.
If, for example, a forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, many people think it means that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast. Others think it will rain for 20 percent of the time, said Susan Joslyn, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington who conducted the study.
The reality: 'When a forecast says there is a 20 percent chance of rain tomorrow it actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with exactly the same atmospheric conditions,' Joslyn explained.
Put another way, on that day there's an 80 percent chance there will be no rain anywhere in the forecast area. "
"To bring an umbrella or not to bring an umbrella? That's the perennial question on those days where the chance of rain is less than 100 percent.
But only half the population understands what a precipitation forecast means well enough to make a fully informed answer, a new study finds.
If, for example, a forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, many people think it means that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast. Others think it will rain for 20 percent of the time, said Susan Joslyn, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington who conducted the study.
The reality: 'When a forecast says there is a 20 percent chance of rain tomorrow it actually means it will rain on 20 percent of the days with exactly the same atmospheric conditions,' Joslyn explained.
Put another way, on that day there's an 80 percent chance there will be no rain anywhere in the forecast area. "
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It's been in there since August last year and I've never used it. I'm sure I've experienced rain at some point since August. It's raining now, although to be fair, I'm indoors and the rain is outdoors.
But I have an umbrella pretty much all the time, because I'm strange.
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